Ex-Cub Factor
From Wiklifield
This article was originally written by TCR founder, Christian Ruzich.
The phrase "ex-Cub factor" has been thrown around quite a bit. It was originally coined by writer and Cub fan Ron Berler, who wrote an article in 1981 stating that since the Yankees of that season had five ex-Cubs on their roster, they were doomed to lose the World Series if they got there. He was right -- they lost to the Dodgers in six games.
Up until 2001, the curse of the ex-Cub had been almost complete. Since the Cubs last won the NL pennant in 1945, only once had a team with three or more ex-Cubs won the World Series. That was the 1960 Pirates, and Berler even manages to explain that anomaly away in his article.
In 2001, though, the Arizona Diamondbacks won the championship with a healthy contingent of ex-Cubs: Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez, Mike Morgan, and Miguel Batista. It would appear that the curse has been broken, and Mark Grace even said as much during a post-game interview. In response, all I can say is it's pretty interesting that the World Series to which this one has most been compared is the 1960 Series, won by the Pirates. In both cases, the National League team beat the New York Yankees in the bottom of the 9th inning of the 7th game of the Series. Coincidence? Or SOMETHING MORE???
You can now read the entire original Ex-Cub Factor article right here. Special thanks to Ron Berler, and as always to Mark McClusky, for bringing this website to Berler's attention.
Contents |
[edit] 2009
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim(1) - Gary Matthews Jr.
Colorado Rockies - Jason Marquis
Philadelphia Phillies(4) - Scott Eyre, Miguel Cairo, Matt Stairs, Paul Bako
Los Angeles Dodgers (1) - Juan Pierre
St. Louis Cardinals (1) - Mark DeRosa
New York Yankees (3) - Chad Gaudin, Jerry Hairston Jr., Jose Molina
Boston Red Sox - Joey Gathright?
Minnesota Twins - Brendan Harris, Ron Mahay
the ex-Cub factor is foiled again and likely dead.
[edit] 2008
Philadelphia Phillies: 3 -- Scott Eyre, Jamie Moyer, Matt Stairs
Milwaukee Brewers: 1 -- Jason Kendall
Chicago Cubs: None
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 -- Nomar Garciaparra, Greg Maddux, Juan Pierre
Chicago White Sox: None
Tampa Bay Rays: 1 -- Cliff Floyd
Boston Red Sox: None
Los Angeles Angels Etc.: 2 -- Gary Matthews Jr., Justin Speier
[edit] 2007
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (3): Antonio Alfonseca, Tom Gordon, Jamie Moyer
LOS ANGELES ANGELS (2): Gary Matthews, Chris Justin Speier
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (2): Juan Cruz, Augie Ojeda
CLEVELAND INDIANS (2): Joe Borowski, Kenny Lofton
CHICAGO CUBS (1): Steve Trachsel
BOSTON RED SOX (1): Julian Tavarez
COLORADO ROCKIES (1): Latroy Hawkins
NEW YORK YANKEES (1): Kyle Farnsworth
[edit] 2006
Los Angeles Dodgers (4): Nomar Garciaparra, Kenny Lofton, Greg Maddux, Ramon Martinez
New York Mets (2): Michael Tucker, Steve Trachsel
New York Yankees (2): Miguel Cairo, Kyle Farnsworth
Minnesota Twins (2): Phil Nevin, Rondell White
San Diego Padres (1): Todd Walker
Detroit Tigers (1): Neifi Perez
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Jose Vizcaino
Oakland A's: NONE
[edit] 2005
New York Yankees (4) - Tony Womack, Mark Bellhorn, Tom Gordon, Tanyon Sturtze
Boston Red Sox (3) - Matt Clement, Geremi Gonzalez, Bill Mueller
San Diego Padres (3) - Eric Young, ???
St. Louis Cardinals (3) -
Atlanta Braves (2) -
Anaheim Angels (1) -
Chicago White Sox (1) - Ross Gload?
Houston Astros (1) - Jose Vizcaino
RESULT: White Sox (1) DEF. Astros (1) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
[edit] 2004
New York Yankees (5) - Jon Lieber, Felix Heredia, Tanyon Sturtze, Miguel Cairo, Tom Gordon
St. Louis Cardinals (3) - Tony Womack, Julian Tavarez, Ray King
Los Angeles Dodgers (2) - Hee Seop Choi, Jose Hernandez
Atlanta Braves (2) - Juan Cruz, Antonio Alfonseca
Anaheim Angels (1) - Jose Molina
Boston Red Sox (2) - Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn
Houston Astros (1) - Jose Vizcaio
Minnesota Twins (0)
RESULT: Red Sox (2) DEF. Cardinals (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
[edit] 2003
Atlanta (4): Will Cunnane, Matt Franco, Ray King, Greg Maddux
San Francisco (3): Benito Santiago, Tim Worrell, Eric Young
New York Yankees (2): Felix Heredia, Jon Lieber (DL)
Cubs (2): Doug Glanville, Mark Guthrie
Houston (2): Orlando Merced, Jose Vizcaino
Florida (1): Lenny Harris
Boston (1): Bill Mueller
Oakland (1): Micah Bowie (DL)
Minnesota: None
As usual, the Braves look to be in trouble when it comes to ex-Cubs in the playoffs. Maddux will be on the post-season roster, and I imagine Franco will be, too. That leaves the two relief pitchers. Cunnane has been effective in John Smoltz's absence, so he very well may make the playoff roster. If he does, the Braves are doomed. Likewise the Giants, who feature ex-Cubs at starting catcher and closer. Eric Young was acquired as insurance against Ray Durham's injury. With Durham healthy, Felipe Alou would be wise to leave Young off the October roster unless he wants to treat fans to a repeat of last year's heartbreak.
I've been tracking the ex-Cub factor for the past few years, and Carl Condon has gone back to the earliest days of the World Series to track The Factor. I have combined the work he and I have done and you'll see that the Curse of the Ex-Cub has held true almost perfectly throughout the years.
Is there a lesson to be learned from this? I think so. If you find your team in a pennant race, RELEASE ANYONE WHO USED TO BE ON THE CUBS. It's really pretty simple. Guys like Shawon Dunston and Mike Morgan might help you get into the playoffs, but you'd better ditch them come playoff time.
[edit] 2002
Anaheim Angels (1) - Jose Molina
San Francisco Giants (3) - Benito Santiago, Tim Worrell, Shawon Dunston
Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Yankees
Oakland Athletics
Minnesota Twins
Angels (1) defeat Giants (3) in World Series. Ex-Cub Factor fulfilled for the 20th time.
[edit] 2001
Arizona Diamondbacks (4): Miguel Batista, Luis Gonzalez, Mark Grace, Mike Morgan
Atlanta Braves (3): Dave Martinez, Greg Maddux, Rey Sanchez
Houston Astros (3): Orlando Merced, Scott Servais, Jose Vizcaino
Oakland Athletics (1): Mark Guthrie
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Miguel Cairo
Seattle Mariners (1): Jaime Moyer
Cleveland Indians (0)
New York Yankees (0)
RESULT: DIAMONDBACKS (4) DEF. YANKEES (0) -- THE FACTOR IS DEFEATED
[edit] 2000
In 2000, almost everyone hit the post-season safely below the threshhold:
New York Mets (3): Matt Franco, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
New York Yankees (2): Glenallen Hill, Jose Vizcaino
Atlanta Braves (2): Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Shawon Dunston
Oakland Athletics (1): Doug Jones
Seattle Mariners (1): Jamie Moyer
San Francisco Giants (0)
Chicago White Sox (0)
RESULT: YANKEES (2) DEF. METS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
[edit] 1999
1999 marked the second time the Braves were tripped up by The Factor:
Atlanta Braves (3): Jose Hernandez, Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
New York Mets (3):Shawon Dunston, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
Texas Rangers (3): Mike Morgan, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Zeile
Arizona Diamondbacks (2): Dan Plesac, Luis Gonzalez
Boston Red Sox (1): Rod Beck
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Matt Mieske
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
[edit] 1998
1998's playoff teams were pretty much ex-Cub-free:
Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Doug Jones
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Eckersley
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Houston Astros (1): Dave Clark
New Yok Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (1): Randy Myers
Texas Rangers (1): Todd Zeile
Ironically, the only team with a critical mass of ex-Cubs on their playoff roster in '98 was the Cubs themselves:
Chicago Cubs (3): Glenallen Hill, Mike Morgan, Terry Mulholland
As you may remember, they didn't make it to the World Series.
RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. PADRES (1) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1997
The 1997 playoff teams ended up with the following ex-Cubs on their roster:
San Francisco Giants (4): Jose Vizcaino, Glenallen Hill, Damon Berryhill, Terry Mulholland
Baltimore Orioles (3): Jerome Walton, Rafael Palmeiro, Randy Myers
Seattle Mariners (3): Jamie Moyer, Heathcliff Slocumb, Rick Wilkins
New York Yankees (2): Joe Girardi, Rey Sanchez
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Luis Gonzalez
Florida Marlins (1): Alex Arias
Three of the six divisions were won by teams with critical masses of ex-Cubs. Before the playoffs, I wrote that chances were the Orioles and Mariners will drop Jerome Walton and Rick Wilkins, respectively, to drop below the 3-man threshold, which they did. The Giants, however, found themselves with way too many ex-Cubs. Even if they had made it to the World Series, there was no way they could have won.
It looked like the Altanta Braves learned their lesson from the previous season (see below); with Dwight Smith gone and Mike Bielecki on the shelf with shoulder surgery, they were well below the ex-Cub threshold. None of the other playoff teams had anything to worry about.
RESULT: MARLINS (1) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1996
Remember 1996? Here are that year's playoff teams, with their ex-Cub contingent:
Baltimore Orioles (4): Randy Myers, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Parent, Todd Zeile
Atlanta Braves (3): Mike Bielecki, Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
St. Louis Cardinals (2): Dennis Eckersley, Danny Jackson
Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Jose Vizcaino
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
Texas Rangers (0)
Before the playoffs, I wrote the following: "So perhaps we have found the weak link in the Braves' armor -- 3 ex-Cubs is too many, even if one of them is Greg Maddux. Similarly, the Orioles' late-season acquisitions of Mark Parent and Todd Zeile may have in fact been a deadly mistake. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were wise to leave Mike Morgan off the post-season roster."
Well, whaddyaknow? The curse of the ex-Cubs strikes again. The Braves blow a 2-0 lead in the World Series and end up losing to the Yankees.
RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
[edit] 1995
Atlanta Braves (2): Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
Cincinnati Reds (2) Chuck McElroy, Jerome Walton
Colorado Rockies (1): Joe Girardi
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Seattle Mariners (1): Doug Strange
Boston Red Sox (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
New York Yankees (0)
RESULT: BRAVES (2) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1994
No playoffs
[edit] 1993
Atlanta Braves (3): Damon Berryhill, Jay Howell, Greg Maddux
Philadelphia Phillies (2): Danny Jackson, Mitch Williams
Chicago White Sox (1): George Bell
Toronto Blue Jays (1): Joe Carter
RESULT: BLUE JAYS (1) DEF. PHILLIES (2) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1992
Pittsburgh Pirates (3): Danny Jackson, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (1): Damon Berryhill
Oakland Athletics (1): Dennis Eckersley
RESULT: BLUE JAYS (2) DEF. BRAVES (1) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1991
1991: The first World Series since 1963 to feature no ex-Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates (4): Bill Landrum, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho, Curtis Wilkerson
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (0)
Minnesota Twins (0)
RESULT: TWINS (0) DEF. BRAVES (0) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1990
Oakland Athletics (3): Dennis Eckersley, Ron Hassey, Scott Sanderson
Pittsburgh Pirates (2): Bill Landrum, Carmelo Martinez
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Lamp
Cincinnati Reds (1): Billy Hatcher
RESULT: REDS (1) DEF. ATHLETICS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
[edit] 1989
San Francisco Giants (2): Craig Lefferts, Rick Reuschel Oakland Athletics (2): Dennis Eckersley, Ron Hassey Chicago Cubs: None Toronto Blue Jays: None
RESULT: Athletics (2) def. Giants (2) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1988
Oakland Athletics (2): Dennis Eckersley, Ron Hassey Los Angeles Dodgers (1): Jay Howell Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Lamp New York Mets: None
RESULT: Dodgers (1) def. Athleics (2) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1987
San Francisco Giants (4): Mike Krukow, Craig Lefferts, Rick Reuschel, Chris Speier Detroit Tigers (2): Willie Hernandez, Bill Madlock Minnesota Twins (2): George Frazier, Joe Niekro St. Louis Cardinals (1): Steve Lake
RESULT: Twins (2) def. Cardinals (1) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1986
Contrary to opinion, Bill Buckner's Cub-ness had nothing to do with that ball that went through his legs. Now, the wild pitch that Schiraldi threw -- that might have pre-saged his later stint with the Cubs (a pre-Cub factor?). And then there's poor Donnie Moore...
Houston Astros (2): Billy Hatcher, Davey Lopes Boston Red Sox (1): Bill Buckner California Angels (1): Donnie Moore New York Mets: None
RESULT: Mets (0) def. Red Sox (1) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1985
Toronto Blue Jays (3): Bill Caudill, Cliff Johnson, Dennis Lamp Los Angeles Dodgers (2): Jay Johnstone, Bill Madlock St. Louis Cardinals (2): Bill Campbell, Ivan DeJesus Kansas City Royals (1): Larry Gura
RESULT: Royals (1) def. Cardinals (2) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1984
San Diego Padres (3): Craig Lefferts, Carmelo Martinez, Champ Summers Detroit Tigers (2): Willie Hernandez, Milt Wilcox Kansas City Royals (1): Larry Gura Chicago Cubs: None
RESULT: Twins (2) def. Cardinals (1) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1983
Chicago White Sox (3): Scott Fletcher, Dennis Lamp, Dick Tidrow Philadelphia Phillies (3): Ivan DeJesus, Greg Gross, Willie Hernandez Los Angeles Dodgers (2): Burt Hooton, Rick Monday Baltimore Orioles: None
RESULT: Orioles (0) def. Phillies (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
[edit] 1982
California Angels (3): Mick Kelleher, Steve Renko, Geoff Zahn Atlanta Braves (1): Donnie Moore St. Louis Cardinals (1): Bruce Sutter Milwaukee Brewers: None
RESULT: Cardinals (1) def. Brewers (0) -- NO FACTOR
[edit] 1981
The year that Ron Berler wrote his original article. Five ex-Cubs? What were the Yankees thinking??
New York Yankees (5): Barry Foote, Oscar Gamble, Bobby Murcer, Dave LaRoche, Rick Reuschel Montreal Expos (4): Ray Burris, Woody Fryman, Rodney Scott, Jerry White Los Angeles Dodgers (2): Burt Hooton, Rick Monday Philadelphia Philles (2): Greg Gross, Manny Trillo Oakland Athletics (1): Cliff Johnson Kansas City Royals (1): Larry Gura
RESULT: Dodgers (2) def. Yankees (5) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
[edit] 1980
Kansas City Royals (3): Jose Cardenal, Larry Gura, Pete LaCock New York Yankees (2): Oscar Gamble, Bobby Murcer Philadelphia Philles (2): Greg Gross, Manny Trillo Houston Astros (1): Joe Niekro
RESULT: Phillies (2) def. Royals (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
[edit] External Links
"The Ex-Cub Factor: Theory will Decide World Series winner" by Ron Berler [2]
"Three Ex-Cubs Assure Spurning of Atlanta" by Mike Rokyo [3]
Wikipedia Entry [4]
"The Ex-Cub Factor: Ignore it At Your Own Risk" by Christian Ruzich [5]
"2008 Ex-Cub Factor Update" by Christian Ruzich [6]
